Modelling a two-peak hand, foot, and mouth disease outbreak caused by enterovirus A71 in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam in 2023.
HFMD data from 2017 - 2023
Time - series epidemic curve of HFMD in Ho Chi Minh from 2017 - 2023
Epidemic curve of HFMD in Ho Chi Minh (you can double - click on the legend to display a specific year)
Data description
| Characteristic | 2013, N = 8,0781 | 2014, N = 10,0431 | 2015, N = 8,7291 | 2016, N = 5,7401 | 2017, N = 30,8251 | 2018, N = 39,3521 | 2019, N = 28,4861 | 2020, N = 16,3981 | 2021, N = 9,7721 | 2022, N = 19,1651 | 2023, N = 43,3801 | 2024, N = 7,3971 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age | NA (NA, NA) | NA (NA, NA) | NA (NA, NA) | NA (NA, NA) | 1.84 (1.21, 2.80) | 1.95 (1.22, 3.04) | 1.85 (1.18, 2.90) | 1.83 (1.18, 2.79) | 2.21 (1.42, 3.28) | 2.25 (1.48, 3.29) | 2.54 (1.68, 3.72) | 2.35 (1.38, 3.54) |
| Gender | ||||||||||||
| Female | 3,159 (39%) | 4,070 (41%) | 3,617 (41%) | 2,391 (42%) | 12,982 (42%) | 16,815 (43%) | 12,196 (43%) | 6,944 (42%) | 4,123 (42%) | 7,950 (41%) | 18,461 (43%) | 3,121 (42%) |
| Male | 4,919 (61%) | 5,973 (59%) | 5,112 (59%) | 3,349 (58%) | 17,843 (58%) | 22,537 (57%) | 16,290 (57%) | 9,454 (58%) | 5,649 (58%) | 11,215 (59%) | 24,919 (57%) | 4,276 (58%) |
| District | ||||||||||||
| 1 | 157 (1.9%) | 174 (1.7%) | 156 (1.8%) | 96 (1.7%) | 632 (2.1%) | 688 (1.7%) | 592 (2.1%) | 278 (1.7%) | 163 (1.7%) | 383 (2.0%) | 707 (1.6%) | 121 (1.6%) |
| 10 | 240 (3.0%) | 270 (2.7%) | 234 (2.7%) | 145 (2.5%) | 912 (3.0%) | 944 (2.4%) | 813 (2.9%) | 265 (1.6%) | 226 (2.3%) | 492 (2.6%) | 947 (2.2%) | 149 (2.0%) |
| 11 | 272 (3.4%) | 343 (3.4%) | 282 (3.2%) | 210 (3.7%) | 836 (2.7%) | 937 (2.4%) | 692 (2.4%) | 347 (2.1%) | 272 (2.8%) | 434 (2.3%) | 984 (2.3%) | 149 (2.0%) |
| 12 | 398 (4.9%) | 590 (5.9%) | 422 (4.8%) | 266 (4.6%) | 2,006 (6.5%) | 2,391 (6.1%) | 1,967 (6.9%) | 1,198 (7.3%) | 554 (5.7%) | 1,243 (6.5%) | 3,108 (7.2%) | 534 (7.2%) |
| 3 | 148 (1.8%) | 174 (1.7%) | 187 (2.1%) | 102 (1.8%) | 684 (2.2%) | 708 (1.8%) | 631 (2.2%) | 290 (1.8%) | 175 (1.8%) | 420 (2.2%) | 693 (1.6%) | 107 (1.4%) |
| 4 | 184 (2.3%) | 205 (2.0%) | 204 (2.3%) | 114 (2.0%) | 707 (2.3%) | 784 (2.0%) | 642 (2.3%) | 435 (2.7%) | 233 (2.4%) | 561 (2.9%) | 771 (1.8%) | 138 (1.9%) |
| 5 | 250 (3.1%) | 289 (2.9%) | 238 (2.7%) | 127 (2.2%) | 648 (2.1%) | 690 (1.8%) | 533 (1.9%) | 212 (1.3%) | 168 (1.7%) | 380 (2.0%) | 630 (1.5%) | 120 (1.6%) |
| 6 | 426 (5.3%) | 438 (4.4%) | 437 (5.0%) | 270 (4.7%) | 1,196 (3.9%) | 1,383 (3.5%) | 1,006 (3.5%) | 534 (3.3%) | 415 (4.2%) | 579 (3.0%) | 1,212 (2.8%) | 224 (3.0%) |
| 7 | 302 (3.7%) | 347 (3.5%) | 301 (3.4%) | 188 (3.3%) | 1,474 (4.8%) | 1,654 (4.2%) | 1,316 (4.6%) | 724 (4.4%) | 423 (4.3%) | 929 (4.8%) | 1,950 (4.5%) | 321 (4.3%) |
| 8 | 793 (9.8%) | 883 (8.8%) | 803 (9.2%) | 706 (12%) | 2,310 (7.5%) | 2,427 (6.2%) | 1,718 (6.0%) | 1,037 (6.3%) | 738 (7.6%) | 1,352 (7.1%) | 2,400 (5.5%) | 476 (6.4%) |
| Bình Chánh | 832 (10%) | 909 (9.1%) | 919 (11%) | 541 (9.4%) | 2,056 (6.7%) | 4,343 (11%) | 2,225 (7.8%) | 2,116 (13%) | 1,334 (14%) | 1,111 (5.8%) | 4,804 (11%) | 965 (13%) |
| Bình Tân | 737 (9.1%) | 1,051 (10%) | 839 (9.6%) | 554 (9.7%) | 2,771 (9.0%) | 4,850 (12%) | 2,912 (10%) | 1,999 (12%) | 1,455 (15%) | 1,544 (8.1%) | 4,602 (11%) | 795 (11%) |
| Bình Thạnh | 315 (3.9%) | 310 (3.1%) | 248 (2.8%) | 149 (2.6%) | 1,435 (4.7%) | 1,818 (4.6%) | 1,417 (5.0%) | 774 (4.7%) | 385 (3.9%) | 1,026 (5.4%) | 1,967 (4.5%) | 335 (4.5%) |
| Cần Giờ | 74 (0.9%) | 89 (0.9%) | 36 (0.4%) | 32 (0.6%) | 334 (1.1%) | 275 (0.7%) | 304 (1.1%) | 96 (0.6%) | 42 (0.4%) | 186 (1.0%) | 477 (1.1%) | 57 (0.8%) |
| Củ Chi | 299 (3.7%) | 517 (5.1%) | 614 (7.0%) | 477 (8.3%) | 1,898 (6.2%) | 1,579 (4.0%) | 1,163 (4.1%) | 537 (3.3%) | 425 (4.3%) | 936 (4.9%) | 1,966 (4.5%) | 388 (5.2%) |
| Gò Vấp | 352 (4.4%) | 529 (5.3%) | 389 (4.5%) | 228 (4.0%) | 1,551 (5.0%) | 1,806 (4.6%) | 1,423 (5.0%) | 822 (5.0%) | 324 (3.3%) | 996 (5.2%) | 2,616 (6.0%) | 412 (5.6%) |
| Hóc Môn | 460 (5.7%) | 613 (6.1%) | 449 (5.1%) | 255 (4.4%) | 1,675 (5.4%) | 1,961 (5.0%) | 1,408 (4.9%) | 727 (4.4%) | 424 (4.3%) | 914 (4.8%) | 2,037 (4.7%) | 334 (4.5%) |
| Nhà Bè | 197 (2.4%) | 232 (2.3%) | 173 (2.0%) | 154 (2.7%) | 866 (2.8%) | 1,106 (2.8%) | 933 (3.3%) | 480 (2.9%) | 249 (2.5%) | 713 (3.7%) | 1,434 (3.3%) | 260 (3.5%) |
| Phú Nhuận | 120 (1.5%) | 157 (1.6%) | 87 (1.0%) | 62 (1.1%) | 412 (1.3%) | 545 (1.4%) | 442 (1.6%) | 241 (1.5%) | 123 (1.3%) | 398 (2.1%) | 628 (1.4%) | 85 (1.1%) |
| Tân Bình | 456 (5.6%) | 440 (4.4%) | 339 (3.9%) | 194 (3.4%) | 1,582 (5.1%) | 1,764 (4.5%) | 1,368 (4.8%) | 581 (3.5%) | 362 (3.7%) | 975 (5.1%) | 1,837 (4.2%) | 245 (3.3%) |
| Tân Phú | 363 (4.5%) | 502 (5.0%) | 493 (5.6%) | 315 (5.5%) | 1,673 (5.4%) | 2,293 (5.8%) | 1,542 (5.4%) | 740 (4.5%) | 528 (5.4%) | 1,068 (5.6%) | 2,340 (5.4%) | 316 (4.3%) |
| Thủ Đức | 703 (8.7%) | 981 (9.8%) | 879 (10%) | 555 (9.7%) | 3,167 (10%) | 4,406 (11%) | 3,439 (12%) | 1,965 (12%) | 754 (7.7%) | 2,525 (13%) | 5,270 (12%) | 866 (12%) |
| Treatment | ||||||||||||
| Death | 2 (<0.1%) | 1 (<0.1%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) |
| Discharge | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 4,817 (16%) | 5,245 (13%) | 2,427 (8.5%) | 1,111 (6.8%) | 488 (5.0%) | 871 (4.5%) | 1,174 (2.7%) | 299 (4.0%) |
| Inpatient | 8,076 (100%) | 10,042 (100%) | 8,729 (100%) | 5,740 (100%) | 510 (1.7%) | 1,805 (4.6%) | 1,702 (6.0%) | 1,585 (9.7%) | 1,219 (12%) | 1,355 (7.1%) | 5,598 (13%) | 949 (13%) |
| Others | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 9 (<0.1%) | 3 (<0.1%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 2 (<0.1%) | 11 (<0.1%) | 2 (<0.1%) |
| Outpatient | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 25,483 (83%) | 32,281 (82%) | 24,350 (85%) | 13,692 (83%) | 8,063 (83%) | 16,920 (88%) | 36,540 (84%) | 6,140 (83%) |
| Transfer | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 0 (0%) | 6 (<0.1%) | 18 (<0.1%) | 7 (<0.1%) | 10 (<0.1%) | 2 (<0.1%) | 17 (<0.1%) | 57 (0.1%) | 7 (<0.1%) |
| 1 Median (IQR); n (%) | ||||||||||||
Age structure analysis
To analyze age structure, we will look at the age distribution of cases as a function of time either continuous variable or binary variable (first peak and second peak), and space (commune or district).
Age distribution of cases as a function of binary time variable (first peak and second peak)
| Characteristic | 1st peak, N = 20,3581 | 2nd peak, N = 23,0141 |
|---|---|---|
| age | 2.649 (1.784, 3.726) | 2.393 (1.548, 3.721) |
| 1 Median (IQR) | ||
Age distribution of cases as a function of continuous time variable
I did two types of analysis: heat map and sliding window (time-varying mean age and [25th,75th] quartile).
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
Annual analysis
2017
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2018
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2019
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2020
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2021
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2022
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
2023
Sliding window with width 7 days and step 1 days
Heat map of age distribution (sliding window with 7-day width and 7-day step)
Time-varying attack rate
Spatial distribution
Reading layer `ADM_ADM_2' from data source
`D:\OUCRU\HCDC\project phân tích sero quận huyện\gadm41_VNM.gpkg'
using driver `GPKG'
Simple feature collection with 710 features and 13 fields
Geometry type: MULTIPOLYGON
Dimension: XY
Bounding box: xmin: 102.1446 ymin: 8.381355 xmax: 109.4692 ymax: 23.39269
Geodetic CRS: WGS 84Incidence
Attack rate Using population census 2019 data
district n1 n2 pop atk1 pop2 atk2
1 1 352 355 161975 0.002173175 161623 0.002196470
2 10 484 462 239944 0.002017137 239460 0.001929341
3 11 492 492 212448 0.002315861 211956 0.002321236
4 12 1942 1166 489271 0.003969170 487329 0.002392634
5 3 346 347 199914 0.001730744 199568 0.001738756
6 4 370 401 174448 0.002120976 174078 0.002303565
7 5 321 309 175828 0.001825648 175507 0.001760614
8 6 572 640 261785 0.002184999 261213 0.002450108
9 7 957 993 343530 0.002785783 342573 0.002898652
10 8 1126 1274 403282 0.002792091 402156 0.003167925
11 Bình Chánh 2512 2290 508490 0.004940117 505978 0.004525888
12 Bình Thạnh 935 1032 515770 0.001812824 514835 0.002004526
13 Bình Tân 2490 2111 622294 0.004001324 619804 0.003405915
14 Cần Giờ 136 341 78240 0.001738241 78104 0.004365974
15 Củ Chi 896 1070 419260 0.002137099 418364 0.002557581
16 Gò Vấp 1521 1095 664746 0.002288092 663225 0.001651023
17 Hóc Môn 1305 732 417053 0.003129099 415748 0.001760682
18 Nhà Bè 695 739 119588 0.005811620 118893 0.006215673
19 Phú Nhuận 323 305 182878 0.001766205 182555 0.001670729
20 Thủ Đức 2906 2360 965772 0.003008992 962866 0.002451016
21 Tân Bình 1003 834 395784 0.002534211 394781 0.002112564
22 Tân Phú 1330 1010 516513 0.002574959 515183 0.001960468Attack rate using data from vaccine registry (Hep B)
district n1 n2 pop atk1 atk2
1 1 352 355 16673 0.02111198 0.02129191
2 10 484 462 20332 0.02380484 0.02272280
3 11 492 492 21842 0.02252541 0.02252541
4 12 1942 1166 82642 0.02349895 0.01410905
5 3 346 347 14742 0.02347036 0.02353819
6 4 370 401 16583 0.02231201 0.02418139
7 5 321 309 14528 0.02209526 0.02126927
8 6 572 640 27231 0.02100547 0.02350263
9 7 957 993 39012 0.02453091 0.02545371
10 8 1126 1274 44031 0.02557289 0.02893416
11 Bình Chánh 2512 2290 71633 0.03506764 0.03196851
12 Bình Thạnh 935 1032 51224 0.01825316 0.02014681
13 Bình Tân 2490 2111 99578 0.02500552 0.02119946
14 Cần Giờ 136 341 8594 0.01582499 0.03967885
15 Củ Chi 896 1070 56343 0.01590260 0.01899082
16 Gò Vấp 1521 1095 64362 0.02363196 0.01701314
17 Hóc Môn 1305 732 60745 0.02148325 0.01205037
18 Nhà Bè 695 739 24352 0.02853975 0.03034658
19 Phú Nhuận 323 305 16741 0.01929395 0.01821874
20 Thủ Đức 2906 2360 151380 0.01919672 0.01558991
21 Tân Bình 1003 834 45766 0.02191583 0.01822314
22 Tân Phú 1330 1010 56487 0.02354524 0.01788022